Correlated Kelly Criterion Optimizer

Stop guessing your bet sizes

AlphaSlate optimizes your entire betting slate at once, accounting for correlations between bets that every other tool ignores.

7-day free trial. No credit card required.

The problem with flat bet sizing

When you bet the same amount on every pick, you're ignoring the math that actually grows your bankroll.

Equal sizing

Chiefs -3(8% edge)
$25
Chiefs O 49.5(5% edge)
$25
Mahomes 280+ yds(3% edge)
$25

Same-game bets are correlated

3x overexposed to a Chiefs blowout

AlphaSlate sizing

Chiefs -3(8% edge)
$32
Chiefs O 49.5(5% edge)
$18
Mahomes 280+ yds(3% edge)
$12

Correlations detected and adjusted

More on the best edge, less on correlated props

How it works

Three steps. Under 60 seconds.

1

Add your bets

Enter your picks with odds and your edge estimate. Quick Add mode lets you add a bet in under 5 seconds.

2

Set your budget

Set a budget per game or for the whole slate. AlphaSlate auto-detects which bets are correlated.

3

Get optimal sizing

See exactly how much to bet on each pick, with scenario analysis showing why the sizing matters.

The math behind it

AlphaSlate uses the generalized Kelly Criterion — the same framework used by professional quant funds and the MIT Blackjack Team.

Correlation-aware optimization

Standard Kelly treats each bet independently. But your Chiefs spread and Chiefs team total are correlated — if the Chiefs blow out, both hit. AlphaSlate models these joint probabilities using a Gaussian copula and optimizes across all 2N possible outcome scenarios simultaneously.

Maximizes long-term growth

The Kelly Criterion maximizes the expected logarithmic growth of your bankroll — proven to outperform any other strategy over time. AlphaSlate applies fractional Kelly (quarter to half) to reduce volatility while keeping the growth advantage, and lets you set per-game budgets for disciplined bankroll management.

Research-grounded correlations

Default correlation values are sourced from Moskowitz 2021 (Journal of Finance, ~100K contracts), Spike Week datasets, and nflfastR game logs. Spread+total is near-zero (not the 0.20+ most people assume). QB passing and WR receiving yards are strongly positive (r=0.54). You can override any value.

Scenario analysis

See what happens to your P&L in best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios. Compare AlphaSlate's sizing against equal-split and naive Kelly to understand exactly where smart allocation adds value — especially in mixed scenarios where some bets win and others lose.

Simple pricing

Start free. Upgrade when you're ready.

Free

$0/mo

  • Up to 3 bets per slate
  • All optimization modes
  • Copy bet amounts
  • Scenario analysis
  • -Correlation matrix
  • -Bet history
  • -Bankroll tracking
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7-DAY FREE TRIAL

Pro

$29/mo

billed annually ($348/yr) or $39/mo monthly

  • Unlimited bets per slate
  • All optimization modes
  • Copy bet amounts
  • Scenario analysis
  • Interactive correlation matrix
  • Bet history & save slates
  • Bankroll tracking & charts
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No credit card required

FAQ

What is the Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly Criterion is a formula that determines the optimal bet size to maximize long-term bankroll growth. It was developed by John Kelly at Bell Labs in 1956 and is used by professional bettors, hedge funds, and the MIT Blackjack Team. AlphaSlate extends it to handle multiple correlated bets simultaneously.

Why does correlation matter?

If you bet the Chiefs spread and the Chiefs over, those bets are correlated — a Chiefs blowout helps both. Standard bet sizing treats them as independent, leading you to overexpose your bankroll to one scenario. AlphaSlate detects these correlations and adjusts your sizing so you're not accidentally doubling down on the same outcome.

How does AlphaSlate estimate correlations?

AlphaSlate uses research-grounded default values from academic studies (Moskowitz 2021, ~100K contracts) and large NFL datasets (nflfastR, Spike Week). For example, spread+total is near-zero, not the +0.20 most people assume. You can view and override any correlation value in the interactive matrix.

Do I need to know my true probability / edge?

You need some estimate of your edge — either a true probability (e.g., you think the Chiefs have a 57% chance to cover) or a sharp line to compare against. AlphaSlate won't create edge where none exists; it optimizes how much to bet given the edge you've identified.

What sports are supported?

AlphaSlate supports NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, UFC/MMA, soccer, and tennis. The correlation defaults are most detailed for NFL (including granular player props like pass yards, rush yards, and receiving yards) with expanding coverage for other sports.

Can I cancel my trial?

Yes, you can cancel anytime from the Settings page. The 7-day trial is completely free with no credit card required. If you cancel, you'll keep access until the trial period ends, then you'll be moved to the free plan.

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Join bettors who are using math, not gut feel, to size their slates.

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