AlphaSlate optimizes your entire betting slate at once, accounting for correlations between bets that every other tool ignores.
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When you bet the same amount on every pick, you're ignoring the math that actually grows your bankroll.
Equal sizing
Same-game bets are correlated
3x overexposed to a Chiefs blowout
AlphaSlate sizing
Correlations detected and adjusted
More on the best edge, less on correlated props
Three steps. Under 60 seconds.
Enter your picks with odds and your edge estimate. Quick Add mode lets you add a bet in under 5 seconds.
Set a budget per game or for the whole slate. AlphaSlate auto-detects which bets are correlated.
See exactly how much to bet on each pick, with scenario analysis showing why the sizing matters.
AlphaSlate uses the generalized Kelly Criterion — the same framework used by professional quant funds and the MIT Blackjack Team.
Standard Kelly treats each bet independently. But your Chiefs spread and Chiefs team total are correlated — if the Chiefs blow out, both hit. AlphaSlate models these joint probabilities using a Gaussian copula and optimizes across all 2N possible outcome scenarios simultaneously.
The Kelly Criterion maximizes the expected logarithmic growth of your bankroll — proven to outperform any other strategy over time. AlphaSlate applies fractional Kelly (quarter to half) to reduce volatility while keeping the growth advantage, and lets you set per-game budgets for disciplined bankroll management.
Default correlation values are sourced from Moskowitz 2021 (Journal of Finance, ~100K contracts), Spike Week datasets, and nflfastR game logs. Spread+total is near-zero (not the 0.20+ most people assume). QB passing and WR receiving yards are strongly positive (r=0.54). You can override any value.
See what happens to your P&L in best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios. Compare AlphaSlate's sizing against equal-split and naive Kelly to understand exactly where smart allocation adds value — especially in mixed scenarios where some bets win and others lose.
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The Kelly Criterion is a formula that determines the optimal bet size to maximize long-term bankroll growth. It was developed by John Kelly at Bell Labs in 1956 and is used by professional bettors, hedge funds, and the MIT Blackjack Team. AlphaSlate extends it to handle multiple correlated bets simultaneously.
If you bet the Chiefs spread and the Chiefs over, those bets are correlated — a Chiefs blowout helps both. Standard bet sizing treats them as independent, leading you to overexpose your bankroll to one scenario. AlphaSlate detects these correlations and adjusts your sizing so you're not accidentally doubling down on the same outcome.
AlphaSlate uses research-grounded default values from academic studies (Moskowitz 2021, ~100K contracts) and large NFL datasets (nflfastR, Spike Week). For example, spread+total is near-zero, not the +0.20 most people assume. You can view and override any correlation value in the interactive matrix.
You need some estimate of your edge — either a true probability (e.g., you think the Chiefs have a 57% chance to cover) or a sharp line to compare against. AlphaSlate won't create edge where none exists; it optimizes how much to bet given the edge you've identified.
AlphaSlate supports NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, UFC/MMA, soccer, and tennis. The correlation defaults are most detailed for NFL (including granular player props like pass yards, rush yards, and receiving yards) with expanding coverage for other sports.
Yes, you can cancel anytime from the Settings page. The 7-day trial is completely free with no credit card required. If you cancel, you'll keep access until the trial period ends, then you'll be moved to the free plan.
Join bettors who are using math, not gut feel, to size their slates.
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